There is still a long way to go in Super League 2023 with most teams still having nine games to play while Huddersfield Giants still have eleven matches left including this evening’s visit to play the Catalans Dragons in the south of France.
But last nights golden point drop goal from Will Dagger threw a massive lifeline to Wakefield Trinity as they recorded their third win of the season, and their third win in their last four games as they show a massive turnaround in fortune.
With the Castleford Tigers losing to the Leigh Leopards last night the difference between the sides is now just two league points and it makes the game between the bottom two sides on the 20th August looks like the most crucial game of the season.
We thought that we´d make a few assumptions and take a look at the bottom three sides, just in case Huddersfield should get drawn into the scrap, and see who is likely to be occupying that bottom position come the end of round twenty-seven, and face relegation to the Championship or 2024.
Remaining Games
Wakefield
Huddersfield (A) - Warrington (H) - Hull FC (A) - Castleford (H) - Salford (A) - St Helens (H) - Catalans (H) - Leigh (A) - Hull KR (H)
Castleford
Hull FC (A) - Hull KR (A) - Huddersfield (H) - Wakefield (A) - St Helens (H) - Warrington (A) - Hull FC (H) - Wigan (A) - Leeds (A)
Huddersfield
Dragons (A) - Wakefield (H) - Hull FC (H) - Castleford (A) - Salford (H) - Leeds (H) - Leigh (A) - Hull KR (H) - Hull FC (A) - Warrington (H) * St Helens (A) TBA
Assumptions
We´ve had to make a few assumptions to enable us to make an empirical assessment, so;
- Playing against a side in the top 6 there is a 30% chance of winning
- Playing against a side in positions 7 or 8 there is a 40% chance of winning
- Playing against a side in the bottom 4 there is a 55% chance of winning
- Playing at home against a bottom 6 side +10%
- Playing at home against a top 6 side +5%
- Playing away -10%
Predictions
Based on these assumptions;
Wakefield will beat - Castleford, Hull KR
Castleford will beat - Huddersfield, Hull FC
Huddersfield will beat - Wakefield, Hull FC, Leeds (only just), Hull KR
If this plays out like our predictions suggest then the Huddersfield Giants will be safe on eighteen points while both the Castleford Tigers and Wakefield Trinity will finish the season still separated by two league points. But we would only need to be wrong on one outcome for either Wakefield or Castleford for the decision to go down to points difference.
With the recent form of Wakefield, especially in taking the scalps of two top six sides in the last couple of weeks, we just have an inkling that they might pull off the miracle of the century and avoid the drop, sending the Castleford Tigers tumbling into the Championship for the first time since 2007.
It´s going to be one hell of nerve-wracking run in for two anxious sets of supporters.
